Nearly a century back, Richard Wyckoff introduced the Wyckoff Method, a comprehensive framework established in the 1930s to guide traders through market price actions. This Smart Money Concept offers in-depth views into the institutional trading patterns of financial instruments.
Originally designed with stock markets in mind, its relevance has expanded across various markets including Forex, Indices, Metals, and Cryptocurrencies.
Delving into the Wyckoff Method, this blog offers a concise exploration of Richard Wyckoff’s key principles and techniques for market analysis:
- The three fundamental laws that underpin market movements
- The role of the Composite Man in market trends
- The detailed Wyckoff Schematics for phase analysis
- The strategic five-step market approach
What are the three fundamental laws?
What is the Law of Demand and Supply?
The Law of Demand and Supply is pretty straightforward: it says that in markets if more people want to buy something than sell it (high demand and low supply), the price usually goes up. If more people want to sell something than buy it (high supply and low demand), the price tends to go down.
When buyers and sellers are about even, the price doesn’t move much. This balance is what can make prices stable and causes the price to consolidate due to low volatility.
What is the Law of Cause and Effect?
The Law of Cause and Effect in trading extends beyond the immediate price fluctuations due to supply and demand. It encompasses a cycle in which an excess of supply over demand, sustained over time, initiates an Accumulation phase in the market.
Subsequently, a price rise occurs as demand increases. In contrast, an excess of supply triggers a Distribution phase, leading to a price drop when supply exceeds demand. These phases of Accumulation and Distribution act as the foundational causes that produce the effects of market trends moving upwards or downwards.
To help you better grasp the concept with a visual aid, please refer to the following illustration:
What is the Law of Effort against Result?
Wyckoff’s Law of Effort versus Result correlates trading volume with price movements. High volume during a sell-off suggests a strong downtrend, aligning volume (Effort) with the downward price trend (Result). But if the volume remains high while prices stabilize, it indicates a potential shift.
This divergence suggests the downtrend might pause, possibly reversing into an uptrend as selling pressure diminishes and buying interest picks up.
Once again, let us grasp the concept with a visual representation:
What is the role of the Composite Man in Market trends?
Imagine the Composite Man as the big boss of the market, the one who really calls the shots. He’s like the smart money—the big-time investors and market leaders who often have the upper hand over everyday traders. The Composite Man has a knack for buying low and selling high, almost the opposite of what many regular traders end up doing.
The trick for us is to watch what the Composite Man does and try to follow his lead.
The Composite Man breaks down his market strategy into four key stages:
Below is another visual guide to help you understand the market cycle:
During the Accumulation phase, the Composite Man discreetly buys or holds the asset, aiming to avoid noticeable price movements. A flat price range often marks this stage, indicating a buildup period. When the price starts to rise, it signals the beginning of an upward trend.
On the other hand, during the Distribution phase, the Composite Man actively sells off the asset at various price levels throughout a stable period, laying the groundwork for a potential price decline.
Between these main phases, there might be intermediate steps known as re-accumulation, hinting at an upcoming price rise, and re-distribution, suggesting a potential price fall.
Wyckoff Schematics is a cornerstone of the Wyckoff method, breaking down the complex processes of Accumulation and Distribution into detailed phases and specific events. Let’s explore the Accumulation Schematic, identifying key stages and noteworthy occurrences within each segment.
All timeframes exhibit these schematics.
During the Accumulation phase, we see a series of events unfold. It starts with Preliminary Support (PS).
Preliminary Support (PS): indicates an initial effort by buyers to pause the downtrend, though not quite reversing it. This insufficient buying pressure leads to a Selling Climax (SC).
Selling Climax (SC): Panic sell-off from retail traders is absorbed by Institutional investors (the Composite Man).
Automatic Rally (AR): occurs as a reflex to the heavy buying, creating a temporary high and setting up resistance levels.
Secondary Test (ST): is where prices may dip back down to or below the SC levels, reflecting market uncertainty about the downtrend’s end, often accompanied by decreased trading volume. This ST may precede another test in the subsequent Phase B.
Let’s briefly review the Law of Cause and Effect we went over before. This principle explains that when there’s substantial trading volume (the Cause), instead of the price continuing to drop, it begins to stabilize and consolidate (the Effect). At this point, the Composite Man tends to accumulate a significant portion of their position, while simultaneously evaluating the established resistance and support levels, as determined by the Automatic Rally (AR) and the Secondary Test (SC/ST). During this phase, we typically see a series of Secondary Tests.
During this particular stage, the primary occurrence to watch for is known as the Spring, also known as the Shakeout. This event signifies the Composite Man’s effort to hold positions against the remaining sellers. It’s akin to setting a Bear trap.
The Spring’s lowest point can be seen falling below the support lines, which often triggers retail investors to exit their positions just before a price increase. It’s crucial not to expect the same pattern to present itself every time. The setup may differ, yet it can still represent a valid model. Understanding the underlying principles of these patterns is key, as it enables you to recognize the setup, even if it doesn’t exactly match the example previously shown.
In this phase, there’s a noticeable uptick in both trading volume and market volatility, signaling a shift in upward momentum. This is the stage where the ’cause’ will soon manifest its ‘effect’. Within this phase, one will witness Tests and the Last Point of Supply (LPS) through multiple instances, each characterized by higher lows that suggest an upward move.
The Last Point of Supply (LPS): marks the final low point from which prices are anticipated to climb to higher highs, establishing a sequence of support levels with increasingly higher lows. Following the LPS, we typically encounter Signs of Strength.
Signs of Strength (SOS): occur when the price breaks past resistance levels previously identified by the Automatic Rally (AR), indicating the beginning of an uptrend. After this, a Last Point of Supply or a Back-Up (BU) phase usually occurs, often retesting the newly established support level that was once a resistance line. This event is generally the concluding phase in Phase D.
Phase E represents the culmination of the Accumulation pattern, signifying the completion of the setup as the market breaks out of the previously established consolidation range. This breakout serves as a solid indicator of the market’s transition into an uptrend.
To grasp the concept of the Distribution Schematic, it helps to compare it with the Accumulation Schematic. This comparison can clarify the nuances of market behavior. Now, let’s delve into the insights the Distribution Schematic reveals about the market.
In this stage of the market, we’ll analyze the key events one by one. The Preliminary Supply (PSY) initially indicates that an uptrend may be losing momentum.
Preliminary Supply (PSY): reveals a tentative attempt by sellers to dominate the market, although their efforts are insufficient to halt further upward movement. This lack of dominance by sellers paves the way for the subsequent event, known as the Buying Climax (BC).
The Buying Climax (BC): represents a scenario in which, from the perspective of the Composite Man concept, the flurry of buying by retail investors is countered by accumulation from institutional investors. Following the BC, the market experiences the Automatic Reaction (AR)
Automatic Reaction (AR): is a sharp decline that happens as institutional investors absorb the buying frenzy. The low point of the AR becomes a reference to establish support levels within the framework.
The Secondary Test (ST): happens as prices approach or drop below the level of the BC, creating a moment of uncertainty about the continuation of the uptrend. During this time, trading volume typically diminishes. This ST is often a precursor to another ST that might occur in Phase B.
Throughout this phase, the Law of Cause and Effect plays a critical role. With considerable volume acting as the Cause, we see that instead of continuing its rise, the price begins to stabilize, marking the Effect. It’s at this point that the Composite Man strategically offloads the majority of his holdings, while simultaneously assessing the resistance and support levels that were established through the Automatic Reaction (AR) and the Buying Climax/Secondary Test (BC/ST). During this phase, it’s common to witness numerous Secondary Tests.
A Sign of Weakness (SOW): typically emerges in Phase B, evidenced by a slight decline below the level of the Automatic Reaction (AR), signifying that supply is gaining the upper hand.
An Up-thrust (UT) occurs when the market occasionally pushes past the resistance level formed at the Buying Climax (BC), which is termed as an Up-thrust (UT).
The pivotal occurrence is known as the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) in this stage. It is at this point that the Composite Man tactically absorbs the positions of the final buyers, essentially setting a Bull trap.
Typically, the UTAD’s peak is seen just above the resistance levels, which often precipitates the closing out of retail positions before a significant price decline. This event is the converse of the Spring observed in the Accumulation Schematic.
Similar to the Accumulation Schematic, a significant increase in trading volume and market volatility characterizes this phase. The market’s momentum is now shifting towards a downward trend. Within this phase, the Last Point of Supply (LPS) becomes apparent. Here, one can observe multiple tests, manifested by the creation of lower highs, which indicate a potential downward move.
Such activity is a sign of weakness (SOW) and typically results in the price falling below the support levels.
Phase E marks the completion of the Distribution schematic, characterized by a breach of the consolidated trading range. This break signals a definitive turn towards a downtrend in the market.
What is Wyckoff’s Strategic five-step Market approach?
Wyckoff’s five-step approach to the market is a methodology that offers a structured way to analyze financial instruments based on the principles of supply and demand. Here is a brief overview:
Step 1: Determine the prevailing trend direction.
Step 2: Evaluate the market’s strength or momentum by analyzing volume.
Step 3: Select financial instruments that display a sufficient ‘Cause’ in the schematic within their price and volume structures to justify an entry point.
Step 4: Assess the probability of the anticipated move. This involves aligning the observed price and volume behavior with the larger trend to gauge potential outcomes.
Step 5: Strategically plan the timing for entering the trade based on the analysis.
Becoming proficient in the Wyckoff Method can significantly enhance a trader’s ability to analyze the markets and refine their trading tactics. Grasping the core principles, various stages, and applied techniques of the Wyckoff approach can reveal the inner workings of market trends, leading to more successful trading outcomes. Don’t delay – begin applying the Wyckoff Distribution Method to your trading strategy now and observe the transformation in your trading results.